Zelda Mafia Round 2 Night One (IMPORTANT, REPLACEMENT NEEDED!)

I am nobody · #81

(^^ That was random. I knew I had to do something, and Ace was inactive so I chose him.)

I mean, there's a few people who are lashing out accusations just to get answers

Well, it worked last game.

Wyborn · #82

There's some people I'll wait to hear from before I start calling for blood, if only because silence is inconsistent with how the game was played before by said people. Suspicious.

But there are a worrying number of people we haven't heard from yet. Where is everyone?

ZeldaGirl · #83

That Guy wrote:Yes, but we have no idea if gearz even knows his role yet, if he is inactive its probably just that, not a mafia ploy.

In addition I don't think inactivity is a valid reason but whatever.

Just throwing this out there - last game, each member of the mafia were very gun-ho and active. So, it's possible that the new mafia from this game are learning to NOT emulate last game's mafia (I mean, it didn't end very well for them)... well, I'm just trying to throw out that idea.

Though, everyone, it's been ONE DAY. Hottie, for one, is flying to LA right now. Other people have just gotten done with school/classes. We can't just start knocking off inactives, because only one day has gone by. Now, if they are still inactive and we are several days into the official Day One, I say sure, take a closer look. Right now, I think it's only best to be patient because chances are good that not everyone has been able to get to a computer and post.

Wyborn · #84

A LOT of mistakes were made last game, mind you.

Probably the largest one by you, ZG, and the chain of events you set off, thought it turned out well for you guys.

ZeldaGirl · #85

Whatever, Mr. Fear Gaze.

Wyborn · #86

Hm....I'm gonna do some fun math now.

We have 21 people - we'll look at it as 20 people + 1 Slasher (this is the guy whose whole goal is to kill everyone in the game except himself, it's hard for him to win and nobody else can win while he lives - unless the Mafia outnumbers him in the end)

Going according to the same fractions as last time, we're still probably at 15 Townies and 5 Mafia, give or take one from each side because at least one of us is bound to be both independent and not a slasher.

25% chance that any given person is Mafia. If we include the slasher, it's about a 28.6% chance that any given person is a non-townie (if we count heroes as townies).

Getting kinda scary!

But this game doesn't exist outside of the context of the other games - the exact same chances exist going into this game as last game, but this is important:

The chance of any person getting townie twice in a row is about 56.3%.

The chance of any person getting Mafia twice in a row is 6.3%.

The chance of any person getting Hero twice in a row is....I can't determine it because there's no easy percentage to work off of there. The numbers are absurdly small.

The chance of one of the former three Mafia members being Mafia this game is 17.6%.

This does not discount any of us - this could be the one game in a thousand where me, Daos, and Blake all end up being Mafia twice. I'm not Mafia, and the odds said I wouldn't be.

TML's a arithmetician, though: I expect he'll tear this post to pieces.

Still waiting to hear back from Chunky on why he's pointing fingers.

ZeldaGirl · #87

^Well, at least YOU can do math.

Part of me is scared to vote at all, because our chances of getting a townie are so good.

I have a question about the slasher... does that mean TWO people a night will die!? I mean, if the mafia kills one, and then the slasher kills another... oh goodness! :(

Wyborn · #88

It does. The only thing is that the Slasher is also going after Mafia where possible.

The Slasher is there to drive us to action. We have to hang someone.

Something in the tone of your post's disturbs me, ZeldaGirl. I am not sure why. Maybe it's the lack of roleplaying, but whatever it is you're acting considerably different from last game.

I am nobody · #89

We've got 15 or so townies/heros. We can afford to lose one or two if it means discovering mafia players.

Wy: Is anyone playing the same way as last game?

ZeldaGirl · #90

^Heh, I'm actually trying to finish a Spanish project right now, and study for my math final. Technically, I shouldn't be online right now (I'm blaming Crav if I fail everything

). Sorry, I'm just not in the mindset to post a long, in-depth RP. That, and I'm kind of scared to since the last time I did, I messed up big time. >_>

Mikhail Gorbachev · #91

Whether or not you were a mafia last game doesn't affect your probability of being a mafia this game at all. (that is if Crav picks the roles at complete random)

ZeldaGirl · #92

DOUBLE POST: Ian beat me to it. That post was directed to Wy. Though, ian brings up a good point - who is playing the same way as last time?

I am nobody · #93

Yes it does. You have a lower chance of being mafia twice then being mafia once.

Wyborn · #94

Mikhail Gorbachev wrote:Whether or not you were a mafia last game doesn't affect your probability of being a mafia this game at all. (that is if Crav picks the roles at complete random)

Only in the most academic sense, but probabilities are what they are: your chances of rolling a 20 with a d20 twice in a row are still 1/400, not 1/20. I had a 25% chance to be mafia last time and a 25% this time (little less), but the chances of me getting it both times is considerably lower.

ZeldaGirl wrote:DOUBLE POST: Ian beat me to it. That post was directed to Wy. Though, ian brings up a good point - who is playing the same way as last time?

Hard to say, which is why those few who have come out are more suspicious.

So far, though? ian and Mikhail.

I am nobody · #95

Of course I'm playing differently. I don't have to worry as much about revealing my role/being killed.

Double Post: Nevermind.

Mikhail Gorbachev · #96

Gambler's fallacy. Both are completely independent events and don't affect each other in any way. Yes, you have a lower chance of getting a mafia role twice, but that still doesn't effect your chances of getting it in a particular game.

Wyborn · #97

i_am_nobody wrote:Of course I'm playing differently. I don't have to worry as much about revealing my role/being killed.

Why would that be, exactly? Last time you were written off as a non-threat by the Mafia and the townies more or less alternated between ignoring you or deriding you for attacking everyone in the game while never actually moving against you.

The focus on playing differently here is odd to me.

ZeldaGirl · #98

I'm going to try and look at things as if there wasn't another game - I mean, yes, I understand that people probably learned a lot from that game, but other than that, I'm trying to look at everything as if it is all fresh and new. No assumptions, just observations, because you never know what kind of things Crav could have thrown at us. I'm trying to do that, anyway.

Basically, this means that no one can be crossed off any list. That includes the mafias and heroes from last game. I understand there's that whole thing about probability, but for now, I'm not going to assume anything.

Gack, I'm out for a few - I really need to finish this project.

Wyborn · #99

Mikhail Gorbachev wrote:Gambler's fallacy. Both are completely independent events and don't affect each other in any way. Yes, you have a lower chance of getting a mafia role twice, but that still doesn't effect your chances of getting it in a particular game.

Hm. I suppose you're right, there - people who try to count dice rolls like one would count cards tend to get hurt fairly badly, but the weight of those probabilities is still very, very real. I stand by what I said with the d20:

Roll it twice and call it a set.

After a million sets you'll probably end up getting two 20s in 1 out of every 400 sets.

But yes. Let's wait for more people.

Blake · #100

Well personally I believe the calculations are in good standing. However, I would guess that the odds are around 2 townies - 1 mafia.

There are about double the people in this game compared to last time. 50% of us being former players(about).

The chances of me, Wy, Daos, and CL of being Mafia is slim. So slim that I doubt any of us are even mafia this time around (maybe 1 at max).

The townies however is more difficult to calculate. There is greater chance that townies are playing the same role obviously.

So for now I'm going to dismiss CL, Wy, and Daos unless one of them does something I think is suspicious.