Zelda Mafia Round 2 Night One (IMPORTANT, REPLACEMENT NEEDED!)

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Microphone_Kirby
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#341

Post by Microphone_Kirby » Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:38 pm

ZG: Oh. OK. Your explanation seens reasonable enough. :)
Oh, and yes you do. ;)

I agree with Rayman: Hottie hasn't been leading anyone yet, and there is no logical reason to FoS her... yet. :p

I would like to know how you think Hottie is leading us on Marilink, and I won't accept anything like "She has done it last Mafia!"

Retract FoS: ZeldaGirl
FoS: Marilink

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#342

Post by I am nobody » Wed Dec 05, 2007 6:25 pm

ZG: *Looks at PM box* The wording was different last round.

ML: HotD not acting different isn't very suspicious.(Not that I wasn't suspcious of her for the entire game...) She was a townie.

That Guy: Yes, I recieved the Kokiri Sword on Night 1. I wouldn't base anything off that though.

Chunky: I'm withdrawing my FoS.

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#343

Post by ZeldaGirl » Wed Dec 05, 2007 6:55 pm

ZG: *Looks at PM box* The wording was different last round.
So, that means I am correct? Yay! I'm not entirely stupid/crazy! :D

Though, I'm going to go ahead and say we can't just write Hottie off completely... ;)

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#344

Post by Daos » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:11 pm

Wy is right, it's time to vote soon (dang, that sounds familiar).

CL: I have been suspicious of for a while too I don't know, call it a gut feeling. Mostly because I have noticed the same things as TML.

Ian:
You are very trusting. Even though I lied about roles during the last game, you are qucik to believe I am a townie just because I know the win conditions.
That almost sounds like a confession.

Wyborn: Call it another gut feeling.

HotD: You seem to be leading us again but I'm not sure I trust where you are leading us.

FoS: CL
FoS: Ian
FoS: Wyborn
FoS: HotD

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#345

Post by The Missing Link » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:11 pm

CuccoLady wrote:TML, I see your point-- you ask if I had any solid reasoning enough to place an FoS. The thing is, FoS's are tools to help figure out your feelings about one person. They're not important except to express you have a feeling of suspicion towards somebody; they're pretty much a conversation starter. I FoS'd you because I noticed that

a) earlier on, you didn't seem too against the method of killing off Gearz at the end of the day, even if he might be townie.
b) see previous posts; I don't feel like restating what I've already said.
I apologise, CL. I completely missed this post earlier. Must have been while I was trying to type up something in response to someone else.

The only time I advocated lynching Gearz was to propose the only conditions by which we could logically kill him if he never showed up. Those conditions were:

1. Crav would freely modkill any inactive player before mentioning he was searching for a replacement.
2. Gearz did not post (or was not replaced), thereby making him eligible for modkill.
3. There were no suspicious people when voting, thereby making our vote essentially random.

If we had voted randomly, the odds are that we'd have picked a Townie since we are roughly 70% of the town. The odds are also that Gearz was a Townie (again, 70%). Therefore, we'd have doubled our losses by not doing so.

However, if any of the three principles weren't true, the argument was moot--and I said as much--meaning that voting for Gearz would have been illogical.

#1 was obviously a false assumption on my part, not knowing how Crav runs the game.
#2 no longer is true as he's been replaced.
#3 is also very much not true now. ;)

At this point, I clearly would not vote for Gearz. :)
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#346

Post by ZeldaGirl » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:15 pm

The Marilink Companion Cube wrote:I think, right now, Mafia is priority over Slasher. We can try to fish both out at the same time, but for now we need to focus on actually winning the game. The odds are telling us that the slasher will be way too hard to get this early.

However, I'm also FoSing Hotster here. It almost pains me to do it, but she's leading us exactly like she did last game. Is that a good thing? I mean, really--she could be misleading us completely. Since she knows what happened last time, she could easily be trying to lead us astray.

My point here is this: Disregard the last round, people. People like ZG and Hjots have been taking all the authority just because of how good they were last time. Not so this round, my friends.

So, formally:

FoS: HotD
Watchful eye: ZG

ALL RIGHT. Let's go! :D

ML is suspicious of Hottie and I solely because of last round? How does that even make any sense? Was I taking action? Yes, you could say so? But this round, Hottie's made very little contribution. Now, if ML were saying she was suspicious because of THAT fact, I would understand. But he's saying she's suspicious based off of things she's NOT doing, though he's saying she is. And Wy said something key, too: Why not Wy? Wy has been just, if not more, vocal than I have. What about TML? CL? Why is it that only Hottie and I are targets of suspicion?

A "theory" I've come up with is that if it turns out Hottie a townie too, then the Mafia only benefits from getting rid of us ASAP (because they think we're uber-awesome or something... :p . Honestly, I think that's ridiculous, we just happened to get very lucky down the stretch, combined with our ability to form a team). Anyway, the easiest way to do this is lynch one of us during the day by turning the town against us (and if the mafia gets really lucky, killing the other at night). It gets us out of the way (even though this absurd fixation with myself is ridiculous - Wy pointed out that I am not some super-human. I'm only average in my mafia-ing skills :p ).

So, my point is, ML, I find it interesting that you think it's Hottie and I that should be the first targets. I mean, myself, yeah, I understand because I've been more vocal. But, saying you're suspicious of us because of last round is silly. It appears that you are more threatened by the prospect of us sticking around... hm... :p

It's not a matter of where you're leading us--it's a matter of the fact that you're leading us--period. Whether or not you're leading us into a trap is irrelevant, the fact that you're leading us at all--and how well you know it may work--it what's suspicious.

So, my FoS remains. Also to ZG, since that new evidence has popped up.

FoS: Hjots
FoS: ZG
Except, as RF said, Hottie hasn't done anything to lead ANYONE. You're reasoning makes little sense.


New evidence? A misstatement on my part, but as you can CLEARLY see, it was nothing more than that. IAN just vouched for me, too.

ML, you haven't really *presented* anything to work with, other than the fact that people should be suspicious of Hottie and I simply because of last round. You just went with the majority, because I had 3 FoS's at that point. It appears to me you are going along with the flow of the majority, without really contributing anything. Hmm...

Again:

FoS: ML

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#347

Post by Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:56 pm

Forgive me if this is a stupid thing to wonder about (I was no privy to the last game, and all that), but what if the Mafia have similar wording to their PM win conditions? Why would quoting that then prove innocence? Again, I have no idea if I'm way off the mark with this, but I thought I might as well mention it.

ML, that was a strange thing for you to say about HotD. If anyone's "following her", it's of their own accord, not because she's said or done anything very convincing. And besides, haven't other little "groups" already started coming together? Wy and TML seem to think mostly along the same lines. Does that mean either of them are leading the other? Do we have to go back and find who was the first to FoS *whoever*, then claim that they're leading everyone who also FoS'd the same person? I find your reasoning to be flawed.

TML wasn't very suspicious to me, with the whole "what does everyone have to do to win?" dealie. Why? Because, last game, the Mafia tried so hard to convince everyone that they too were Townies. So, that would indicate that everyone is going to act the part of a Townie, whether they are or aren't. TML was simply presenting some thinking points, much like you would in a brainstorming session. You put down prompting questions, even obvious ones, to get the ball rolling.

Everyone being suspicious of inactivity is a little foolish to me. We all know for a fact that TML works a great deal, SML is always slightly inactive from school, there are people like ML who have restricted access and HotD's in LA with AS and you don't spend most of your holiday on the internet :p I personally have been having one of the s**ttiest weeks of my life (full details will be available if you really want to know how much everything sucks) and as such, can't dedicate too much time or energy to the computer.

Gearz has been replaced. kingeric is away, and still needs replacing. Bah to people who disappear :O

I'm still concerned that people are making up some pretty wild theories, but I guess that's just how some of us play. It's getting closer to a time we need to either stand together and vote, or face a long, cold night at the mercy of the Mafia and Slasher :( But who can we vote for, not having enough evidence to really "prove" someone's guilt? We'll be worse off killing a Townie. I'm torn between my natural instinct to get on the offensive and the need to go cautiously and not make a huge mistake right at the start.
Nonsense, I have not yet begun to defile myself.

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#348

Post by ZeldaGirl » Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:59 pm

Forgive me if this is a stupid thing to wonder about (I was no privy to the last game, and all that), but what if the Mafia have similar wording to their PM win conditions? Why would quoting that then prove innocence? Again, I have no idea if I'm way off the mark with this, but I thought I might as well mention it.

I'm fairly certain (if someone could back me up on this) that last game, the Mafia won once the Hero character was killed and they were the majority. I believe that's how it went. So, no, the PM's are NOT the same, and it does makes *somewhat* of a difference.

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#349

Post by Saria Dragon of the Rain Wilds » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:02 pm

Okay, thanks for clearing that up, ZG ^_^
Nonsense, I have not yet begun to defile myself.

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#350

Post by ZeldaGirl » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:03 pm

Not at all! :D


(Psst... if you need to vent, you can most certainly PM me! I hope things get better soon!)

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#351

Post by Blake » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:04 pm

Yeah the conditions went somewhere along the line that the heroes must be dead and they have to be equal(I think) or lesser than the townies.
Blake wrote:Yeah the conditions went somewhere along the line that the heroes must be dead and they have to be equal(I think) or lesser than the townies.
Doublie: Mafia has to be equal or greater than townzors. Not less :o

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#352

Post by Cravdraa » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:10 pm

Tazy has replaced Gearz. Still looking for another replacement.

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#353

Post by ZeldaGirl » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:17 pm

^Working on it. :p

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#354

Post by Daos » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:18 pm

What is irksome is there are only about 5 people who are at all active in this topic. I understand we are busy but at least post long enough to share your suspicions with everyone else.

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#355

Post by Rayman FREAK » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:18 pm

First, Retract FoS: Chunky

Yes, I believe his actions were careless, and in many cases carelessness suggests nervousness, which also in many cases suggests guilt. However, I am mostly satisfied with his explanations for his actions, and my FoS was really used in order to draw attention to the fact that he was gone. Therefore, I don't need it there anymore.

I've decided that I will vote tomorrow at 9:30 PM GMT/VGF time at the latest. Right now, Marilink is definitely my top choice.

Marilink, I understand that you have limited computer access, and I want to be fair about voting for someone with this kind of handicap, so I'm giving you until 9:30 PM to plead your case. If I don't hear from you by then, barring other developments that may arise from now until then, I will most likely vote for you. I will fully commit to making my decision at 9:30 if conditions do not largely change from now until then, in which case I might vote earlier. Yes, things can change in the span of 21 hours, but considering the pace of the day, I wouldn't stake much money on it.

In summary, you can all count on my first vote in 21 hours at the latest (correct my if I'm wrong, but I believe we can change votes). And I will reiterate:

FoS: Marilink

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#356

Post by Daos » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:20 pm

Perhaps you can explain to me what ML has done that is so suspicious because I may have missed something. :confused:

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#357

Post by Rayman FREAK » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:22 pm

DOUBLEPOST: Chunky, I am keeping my eye on you. But my previous suspicions have been assuaged.

TRIPLEPOSTZORZ?!: Daos, read from the last post of page 15 to now.

QUADROUPLEit's been a bad dayPOZTSZ: Excuse me. End of page 16 to now.

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#358

Post by Daos » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:26 pm

Hmm yes, I can kind of see what you mean.

FoS: ML

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#359

Post by Blake » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:40 pm

Just out of curiosity, are there still some that are suspicious about CL? I don't want to necessarily defend her, but the only thing she seemed to be suspicious about was the fact that she said something like "yay mafia" very early in the topic and brought back the slasher topic when people apparently didn't want to talk about it.

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#360

Post by ZeldaGirl » Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:41 pm

^I was joking with that FoS. Sorry, if it wasn't obvious. I am not suspicious enough of her to warrant a serious FoS... yet. :p

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